Update: Why Pachter is wrong about his Xbox 360 prediction
Will the Xbox 360 will end up third in the console wars?
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has the greatest job in the world. He’s paid to guess gaming trends, and even when he’s wrong (he usually is), he still gets a monthly check. Strangely, many people seem to believe him. Take his new prediction for the Xbox 360, for example.
Pachter says the Xbox 360 will end up in third place because of the Microsoft console’s weak Japan sales. Third place means the Xbox 360 will lose this generation of console wars.
There’s more: Pachter thinks the Nintendo Wii will remain on top of the console food chain because of its “low price point, innovative control mechanism, and compatibility with standard definition televisions.” Pachter expects Nintendo to introduce its high-definition Wii in the future, perhaps even next year.
Then there’s the current third-placer, the PlayStation 3. Because of Sony’s victory in the Blu-ray vs. HD DVD wars, Pachter believes the PS3 will get a “significant” market share,” and will land in second place (next to the Wii).
Just one problem with the Xbox 360 prediction—Japan may be a big market for video games, but it’s not bigger than the U.S. or Europe, which rank first and second respectively in terms of market size. Therefore, Japanese sales (or lack of it) won’t dictate the Xbox 360’s overall performance.
As far as we’re concerned, the Xbox 360 is a solid second, thanks to its market share in the U.S. and Europe. And so far, it doesn’t look like any amount of PS3 exclusives is going to change that.
Update:
The best thing that Sony could do to help the PS3 overtake the Xbox 360 is a price drop, and soon. Consider: the PS3 was released a year after the Xbox 360, but Sony’s console is only trailing by 7.47 million. Imagine what an even cheaper PS3 can do in terms of sales.
Source: IndustryGamers
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July 4th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
But your forgetting a couple things. The PS3 reached the same units sold as the 360 (22 Million units or so) in a shorter time than the 360 for the same amount. Also your forgeting that the 360 in it’s first year plus the early launch had a lead of about 10.5 million or so before the PS3 came out and at a much cheaper price point then the PS3. Also you also forget if the wii’s price point weren’t a factor then according to you the 360 should already be outselling the Wii because they have a $200 unit.
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July 6th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I hear you, Tom. I’m just saying that Pachter’s use of Japan as a factor is wrong.
And I disagree with the 360 outselling the Wii–I think even if the Xbox 360 were sold at $199 (or even $150), the Wii would still outsell the 360 because of its waggle and not to mention its cheaper games overall.
You see, the casual public is in love with waggle. They’re believing Nintendo’s marketing push: that games today use complex controllers and that the Wii uses a simpler one.
Little did they know that the Wii has a lot of buttons too. 17, if I’m not mistaken.
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